What are the odds?
WSOP MAIN EVENT QUALIFICATION ODDS
Elite Tampa Bay Poker League – After Week 17
With just three weeks remaining, here’s a comprehensive breakdown of each player’s chances to secure one of the six coveted WSOP Main Event seats.
ODDS BY CATEGORY
VIRTUAL LOCK (90%+ chance)
- Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan: 99.9%
- Current points: 107 (16 weeks played)
- Commanding 22-point lead over 2nd place
- Mathematically almost impossible to miss qualification
STRONG POSITION (65-89% chance)
- Jack Bittker: 75.0%
- Current points: 85 (16 weeks played)
- 7-point cushion over the bubble
- Hot recent form (8.0 avg pts in last 3 weeks)
- Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
- Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman: 75.0%
- Current points: 81 (17 weeks played)
- 3-point cushion, but on a strong hot streak
- League’s hottest player (9.7 avg pts in last 3 weeks)
- Met attendance requirement
- Dave Bennett: 75.0%
- Current points: 80 (16 weeks played)
- Only 2 points above bubble but showing excellent form
- 8.3 average points in last 3 weeks
- Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
BUBBLE CONTENDERS (35-64% chance)
- Ryan Johnson: 60.0%
- Current points: 78 (17 weeks played)
- Currently tied at bubble line
- Averaging 4.6 points per week
- Projected to finish above bubble based on season average
- Met attendance requirement
- Karl Manouchakian: 60.0%
- Current points: 77 (17 weeks played)
- Just 1 point below bubble
- Averaging 4.5 points per week
- Projected to surpass bubble with average performances
- Met attendance requirement
- Ray Mancini: 50.0%
- Current points: 78 (17 weeks played)
- Currently at the bubble line
- Consistent but not showing hot form
- Met attendance requirement
- Mohamed Lahlou: 40.0%
- Current points: 78 (15 weeks played)
- Currently at bubble line but trending downward
- Cold streak (1.3 avg pts in last 3 weeks)
- Needs 2 more weeks to meet attendance requirement
- Evan Vancavage: 40.0%
- Current points: 71 (17 weeks played)
- 7 points behind bubble
- Averaging 4.2 points per week
- Needs slightly above-average performance
- Met attendance requirement
OUTSIDE SHOT (10-34% chance)
- Mitchell Smith: 30.0%
- Current points: 66 (17 weeks played)
- 12 points behind bubble
- Strong Week 17 performance (13 points)
- Needs to average 4.0 points per week
- Met attendance requirement
- Donald Manns: 25.0%
- Current points: 62 (15 weeks played)
- 16 points behind bubble
- Averaging 4.1 points per week
- Needs 5.3 points per week going forward
- Needs 2 more weeks to meet attendance requirement
- Mark Winchell: 25.0%
- Current points: 62 (17 weeks played)
- 16 points behind bubble
- Averaging 3.6 points per week
- Needs significantly above-average performance
- Met attendance requirement
- Jackie/Todd Torro Rivers: 20.0%
- Current points: 59 (16 weeks played)
- 19 points behind bubble
- Improving form (5.7 avg pts in last 3 weeks)
- Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
- Twitch Anderson: 15.0%
- Current points: 54 (16 weeks played)
- 24 points behind bubble
- Needs 8.0 points per week – more than double season average
- Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
LONG SHOTS (<10% chance)
- Andra Zachow: 5.0%
- Current points: 46 (17 weeks played)
- 32 points behind bubble
- Would need 10.7 points per week – nearly quadruple season average
- Met attendance requirement
- Nick/Bob Scholz: 5.0%
- Current points: 46 (17 weeks played)
- 32 points behind bubble
- Would need 10.7 points per week
- Met attendance requirement
- Bobby Cornette: 5.0%
- Current points: 44 (16 weeks played)
- 34 points behind bubble
- Would need 11.3 points per week
- Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
- Shawn O’Brien: 5.0%
- Current points: 43 (17 weeks played)
- 35 points behind bubble
- Would need 11.7 points per week
- Met attendance requirement
- Jakob Parks: 5.0%
- Current points: 37 (12 weeks played)
- 41 points behind bubble
- Cannot meet the attendance requirement (needs 5 more weeks)
ATTENDANCE REQUIREMENT WATCH
Players must play at least 17 of the 20 weeks (or have a substitute) and 3 of the final 5 weeks to qualify for WSOP benefits. Players at risk of not meeting the attendance requirement:
- Mohamed Lahlou: Needs 2 more weeks
- Donald Manns: Needs 2 more weeks
- Jack Bittker: Needs 1 more week
- Dave Bennett: Needs 1 more week
- Jackie/Todd Torro Rivers: Needs 1 more week
- Twitch Anderson: Needs 1 more week
- Bobby Cornette: Needs 1 more week
- Jakob Parks: Needs 5 more weeks (mathematically cannot qualify)
MATHEMATICAL CUTOFF
Players below the 37-point mark (Jakob Parks) have been mathematically eliminated, as they would need more than the maximum 42 points available in the remaining three weeks to reach the current bubble line of 78 points. This bubble line will likely increase over the final three weeks.
TIEBREAKER SCENARIO
Remember that ties for the final qualifying position will be broken by the most first-place finishes, including chops. This adds another strategic element for players currently at or near the bubble line.
