The Elite Tampa Bay Poker League’s WSOP qualifier race took a dramatic turn in Week 18 as Karl Manouchakian delivered a commanding performance, scoring a league-high 14 points to catapult himself from the bubble zone into second place on the leaderboard. With just two weeks remaining, Manouchakian has established a 13-point cushion above the qualification line, transforming himself from a bubble contender to a virtual lock for one of the six coveted WSOP Main Event seats.

Following is an amazing hand, the week 18 final table and a full analysis of the current standings and odds of who will represent the league in the 2025 WSOP Main Event this summer!

The week wasn’t short on drama either, as one of the most incredible hands of the season played out when Ray Mancini (pocket aces) and Donald Manns (pocket aces) found themselves all-in preflop against Will McMillan’s pocket nines. In a scene straight out of a poker nightmare, the board delivered the unthinkable: quads for McMillan’s nines, sending both aces crashing to the rail. The improbable outcome helped McMillan secure a strong 12-point week, though still leaving him short of Main Event contention. Meanwhile, the brutal beat cost both Mancini and Manns valuable points in their qualification efforts – particularly consequential for Mancini, who sits right at the bubble line tied for 6th place.

With the qualification cutoff now at 79 points and three players deadlocked at that mark, the final two weeks promise maximum tension as eight players remain with realistic chances to claim one of the six WSOP Main Event seats.

The week 18 final table in order of finish was:

1. Karl Man
2. Will McMillan
3. Shawn O’Brien
4. Scott “Twitch” Anderson
5. Evan Vancavage
6. Mitch Smith
7. Jack Bittker
8. Allen Wiseman
9. Jason Barnett

WSOP MAIN EVENT QUALIFICATION ODDS

Elite Tampa Bay Poker League – After Week 18

With just two weeks remaining, here’s a comprehensive breakdown of each player’s chances to secure one of the six coveted WSOP Main Event seats based on the current standings following Week 18’s results.

CURRENT STANDINGS & BUBBLE SITUATION

The bubble line now sits at 79 points, with a three-way tie for 6th place:

1. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan: 108 points (17 weeks played)
2. Karl Manouchakian: 92 points (18 weeks played) ⬆️ +15 points from Week 17
3. Jack Bittker: 89 points (17 weeks played)
4. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman: 84 points (18 weeks played)
5. Dave Bennett: 81 points (17 weeks played)
6. Mohamed Lahlou: 79 points (16 weeks played)
7. Ray Mancini: 79 points (18 weeks played)
8. Ryan Johnson: 79 points (18 weeks played)
9. Evan Vancavage: 78 points (18 weeks played)

WEEK 18 RESULTS

Week 18 saw some significant movement on the leaderboard:

1. Karl Manouchakian: 14 points (biggest mover of the week)
2. Will McMillan: 12 points
3. Shawn O’Brien: 10 points
4. Twitch Anderson: 8 points
5. Evan Vancavage: 6 points

ODDS BY CATEGORY

VIRTUAL LOCK (90%+ chance)

1. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan: 99.9%
   • Current points: 108
   • Commanding lead over 2nd place
   • Virtually impossible to fall out of qualification

STRONG POSITION (65-89% chance)

2. Karl Manouchakian: 85.0%
   • Current points: 92
   • 13-point cushion over the bubble
   • Huge Week 18 performance (14 points)
   • Met attendance requirement
3. Jack Bittker: 85.0%
   • Current points: 89
   • 10-point cushion over the bubble
   • Met attendance requirement
4. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman: 80.0%
   • Current points: 84
   • 5-point cushion over the bubble
   • Strong recent form (8.3 avg points in recent weeks)
   • Met attendance requirement
5. Dave Bennett: 70.0%
   • Current points: 81
   • 2-point cushion over the bubble
   • Met attendance requirement
6. Ray Mancini: 65.0%
   • Current points: 79
   • Currently at the bubble line
   • Averaging 4.4 points per week
   • Met attendance requirement
7. Ryan Johnson: 65.0%
   • Current points: 79
   • Currently at the bubble line
   • Averaging 4.4 points per week
   • Met attendance requirement
8. Evan Vancavage: 65.0%
   • Current points: 78
   • Just 1 point below the bubble
   • Gaining momentum with 6 points in Week 18
   • Met attendance requirement

BUBBLE CONTENDERS (35-64% chance)

9. Mohamed Lahlou: 40.0%
   • Current points: 79
   • Currently tied at bubble line
   • Cooling off in recent weeks (1.3 avg points)
   • Needs 1 more weeks to meet attendance requirement
   • Attendance requirement is the biggest concern

OUTSIDE SHOT (10-34% chance)

10. Mitchell Smith: 30.0%
    • Current points: 71
    • 8 points behind bubble
    • Needs to average 4.0 points per week
    • Met attendance requirement
11. Twitch Anderson: 17.0%
    • Current points: 63
    • 16 points behind bubble
    • Improving form with 8 points in Week 18
    • Met attendance requirement
12. Donald Manns: 12.0%
    • Current points: 63
    • 16 points behind bubble
    • Needs 1 more week to meet attendance requirement
13. Mark Winchell: 12.0%
    • Current points: 63
    • 16 points behind bubble
    • Met attendance requirement
14. Jackie/Todd Torro Rivers: 12.0%
    • Current points: 60
    • 19 points behind bubble
    • Met attendance requirement

LONG SHOTS (<10% chance)

15. Shawn O’Brien: 8.0%
    • Current points: 54
    • 25 points behind bubble
    • Strong Week 18 performance (10 points)
    • Met attendance requirement

LONG SHOT SCENARIOS – WHAT WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN

For players with an outside chance of making the top 6, here’s what would need to happen:

Mitchell Smith (71 pts, 8 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 8 points in final 2 weeks
• Needs to overtake at least one current top 6 player
• Most vulnerable targets: Mohamed Lahlou, Dave Bennett
• Realistic pathway: Two strong performances (4+ points each week) while Mohamed Lahlou misses at least one week

Twitch Anderson (63 pts, 16 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 16 points in final 2 weeks (8 per week)
• At least one of these must happen:
  • Jack Bittker earns no more than 3 points
  • Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman earns no more than 8 points
  • Dave Bennett earns no more than 11 points
  • Mohamed Lahlou earns no more than 13 points
• Must also overtake multiple players between 7th-12th place
• Most realistic pathway: Two exceptional performances (8+ points each week) combined with Mohamed Lahlou missing both remaining weeks

Donald Manns (63 pts, 16 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 16 points in final 2 weeks
• Must play both remaining weeks to meet attendance requirement
• Must overtake at least Mitchell Smith and one bubble player
• Realistic pathway: Two strong performances plus Mohamed Lahlou missing both weeks

Mark Winchell (63 pts, 16 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 16 points in final 2 weeks
• Similar scenario to Donald Manns, but already met attendance requirement

Jackie/Todd Torro Rivers (60 pts, 19 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 19 points in final 2 weeks (9.5 per week)
• Needs at least one top-6 player to earn minimal points
• Must overtake multiple players currently ahead
• Realistic pathway: Win at least one of the final two weeks, plus Mohamed Lahlou missing both weeks

Shawn O’Brien (54 pts, 25 behind bubble)

• Must gain at least 25 points in final 2 weeks (12.5 per week)
• Would need to win both remaining weeks (or close to it)
• Would need multiple current qualifiers to earn almost no points
• Assessment: Highly unlikely but not mathematically impossible

ATTENDANCE REQUIREMENT WATCH

Players must play at least 18 of the 20 weeks (or have a substitute) and 3 of the final 5 weeks to qualify for WSOP benefits. Players at risk of not meeting the attendance requirement:

• Mohamed Lahlou: Needs 1 more week
• Donald Manns: Needs 1 more week

Critical Note: Mohamed Lahlou is currently in 6th place but needs to play one remaining week. Missing a week would likely drop him out of contention due to the attendance requirement.

THE FINAL TWO WEEKS

The final two weeks will be critical for multiple players. With a maximum of 28 points still available (14 per week), several shifts are possible. The most vulnerable qualification spots are:

1. Mohamed Lahlou (79 pts) – Attendance requirement and cooling form
2. Dave Bennett (81 pts) – Narrow 2-point cushion
3. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (84 pts) – Not safe with 5-point cushion

Meanwhile, both Evan Vancavage (78 pts) and Mitchell Smith (71 pts) have realistic chances to break into the top 6 with strong performances in the final two weeks.

Week 19 is tonight! LFGOOOOOOOOO!!!!

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taxxgirl

I’m a taxgirl by day but poker is my passion. Played the WSOP Main Event in Fall 2021 thanks to the League!