Bubble Trouble: Mitch Climbs as Juan Rules in Pivotal Week 17

With just three weeks remaining in the 20-week Winter/Spring 2025 WSOP League at Win Derby, the battle for the six coveted WSOP Main Event seats is reaching its climax. The leaderboard remains tight as players jockey for position in what has become one of the most competitive seasons in league history.

Below is a summary of the Final table as well as a detailed recap of the season so far!!!

A group of nine poker players seated around a table at Win Derby, with poker chips and cards on the table, and TV screens displaying game statistics in the background.
Final Table

Evan Vancavage 9th

A close-up view of a poker table during a game, featuring community cards laid out and two players' hole cards visible, along with a chip on the table.

Allen Wiseman K4ss> A6 Jackie

Jackie Torro Rivers 8th

Poker table scene featuring playing cards and chips, showing a hand of King of Clubs and 8 of Clubs along with community cards on the table.

Mitch J9> K8cc Ray

Ray Mancini 7th

A close-up view of a poker table during a game, showing playing cards, poker chips, and a timer. The community cards displayed include a king and a jack, with various anonymous player actions taken.

Mitch AA> Mo QQ

Mo Mahlou 6th

A poker table displaying community cards including King of Spades, Ace of Spades, King of Hearts, 2 of Clubs, and 5 of Hearts, with a player's hand showing a King of Diamonds and a Queen of Diamonds, and visible chips stacked in the background.

Juan Rodriguez AQ> Mitch KQ> Mark 88

Mark Winchell 5th

A poker table showing cards played and chips, with a text overlay indicating Mitch's hand of QJh against Dave's TT, noting Dave finished 4th.

Dave Bennett’s 4th place finishes moves him from 9th two weeks ago to 4th on the leaderboard after he chopped 1st last week!

A poker table showing a hand of cards, with two aces in hand for Juan, and a display of community cards including eight, six, and three in a competitive setting.

Allen Wiseman’s third place finish this week for team Allen/Steve moved the team from 8th to 3rd in just one week! Once Allen was out Juan Rodriguez and Mitch Smith agreed to chop 1st! Congrats to Juan and Mitch!

Two men shaking hands in a poker setting, with a promotional banner in the background for the Elite Tampa Bay Poker League. One man is wearing sunglasses and a hooded jacket, while the other is in a t-shirt and baseball cap.

Week 17 Recap & Championship Race Update

Win Derby, Tampa Bay, Florida


CURRENT STANDINGS: THE MAGNIFICENT SIX

  1. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan – 107 points (16 weeks played)
    • Commanding lead with a 22-point cushion over second place
    • Added 13 points in Week 17 to solidify their position
    • Averaging 5.69 points per week with moderate consistency
    • Recent trend: Slightly down (3.80 avg points in last 5 weeks)
  2. Jack Bittker – 85 points (16 weeks played)
    • Holding strong in second place
    • 7-point cushion over 7th place, but still vulnerable
    • Trending UP with 6.80 avg points in last 5 weeks
    • Averaging 4.31 points overall with moderate variance
  3. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman – 81 points (17 weeks played)
    • Added 10 points in Week 17 to strengthen their position
    • Narrow 3-point cushion over 7th place
    • HOT STREAK: 9.67 avg points in last 3 weeks
    • Trending up significantly from 3.76 season average
  4. Dave Bennett – 80 points (16 weeks played)
    • Added 8 points in Week 17
    • Only 2 points ahead of the bubble
    • HOT STREAK: 8.33 avg points in last 3 weeks
    • Second-hottest player in recent weeks
  5. Mohamed Lahlou – 78 points (15 weeks played)
    • Added 4 points in Week 17
    • Currently tied with 6th place and 7th place
    • COLD SPELL: Below average performance in last 3 weeks
    • Season average: 4.20 points per week
  6. Ray Mancini – 78 points (17 weeks played)
    • Added 3 points in Week 17
    • Sitting exactly on the bubble with no cushion
    • Most consistent player (lowest standard deviation)
    • Trending slightly down in recent weeks

ON THE BUBBLE: THE CHALLENGERS

  1. Ryan Johnson – 78 points (17 weeks played)
    • Tied with 5th and 6th place
    • First player out based on tiebreakers
    • Needs just 1 point to overtake current qualifiers
    • Tiebreaker note: Most first-place finishes will break any final ties
  2. Karl Manouchakian – 77 points (17 weeks played)
    • Just 1 point away from the qualifying line
    • Strong chance to move up with a decent performance
  3. Evan Vancavage – 71 points (17 weeks played)
    • Added 1 point in Week 17
    • 7 points behind the bubble line
    • Averaging 4.18 points per week
  4. Mitchell Smith – 66 points (17 weeks played)
    • Week 17’s breakout performer with 13 points
    • Made significant progress but still needs 12 more points
    • Momentum could carry him into contention

WEEK 17 STANDOUTS

Mitchell Smith and Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan dominated Week 17, each earning 13 points to make significant moves on the leaderboard. Smith’s performance was particularly impressive as it catapulted him into the top 10 and kept his WSOP dreams alive.

Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman also had a strong showing with 10 points, strengthening their hold on third place and creating additional separation from the bubble.

PLAYER TRENDS AND MOMENTUM

The recent form of players is becoming critical as we enter the final stretch:

Hot Players (Last 3 Weeks):

  1. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman: 9.67 avg points (29 total)
  2. Dave Bennett: 8.33 avg points (25 total)
  3. Jack Bittker: 8.00 avg points (24 total)
  4. Mitchell Smith: 7.00 avg points (21 total)
  5. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan: 6.50 avg points (13 total in 2 weeks)

Players Cooling Off:

  • Mohamed Lahlou: Below season average in last 3 weeks
  • Ray Mancini: Consistent but trending slightly downward
  • Donald Manns: Inconsistent recent performances

THE FINAL STRETCH: THREE WEEKS TO GO

With a maximum of 42 points still available in the final three weeks (assuming 14 points maximum per week), the race is far from over. Mathematically, players as low as Jakob Parks in 19th place (37 points) could still make a run at the top 6, though they would need nearly perfect finishes.

Players with realistic chances:

  • Ryan Johnson & Karl Manouchakian: Virtually tied with current qualifiers
  • Evan Vancavage: Needs 7 more points to reach the current bubble line
  • Mitchell Smith: Riding momentum from Week 17 (13 points), needs 12 more points
  • Donald Manns & Mark Winchell: Both at 62 points, need 16 more points

At risk of falling out:

  • Ray Mancini: No cushion at the bubble line and trending down
  • Mohamed Lahlou: Currently tied at the bubble and in a cold spell
  • Dave Bennett: Despite hot streak, still just 2 points above the bubble
  • Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman: 3-point cushion, but showing excellent recent form

LOOKING AHEAD: WEEKS 18-20

The final three weeks promise high drama as players either cement their positions or make last-minute charges. With the bubble line currently at 78 points, expect that number to climb into the mid-80s or possibly 90+ by season’s end.

The Rodriguez/Thivyanathan duo appears to have locked up the first seat, but positions 2-10 remain highly volatile. Each elimination hand could represent the difference between a $10,000 WSOP Main Event seat and watching from the rail.

ATTENDANCE REQUIREMENTS

Players are reminded of the crucial attendance requirements to qualify for WSOP benefits:

  • Must play at least 17 of the 20 weeks (or have a substitute play)
  • Must play 3 of the final 5 weeks of the season
  • Meeting these requirements qualifies players to participate in their share of WSOP cashes by league representatives

Even players who have mathematically secured their spots are strongly encouraged to continue playing every week. A strong turnout each week gives all contenders a fair mathematical chance to make the top 6 spots, as fewer players make it more difficult for those on the bubble to earn the points needed to advance.

TIEBREAKER SCENARIOS

With three players currently tied at 78 points, it’s worth noting the official tiebreaker rule: In case of a tie for the final qualifying position (6th place) at the end of the season, the tiebreaker will be determined by the most first-place finishes, including chops. This makes every tournament victory especially valuable down the stretch.

Players like Mohamed Lahlou, Ray Mancini, and Ryan Johnson (all currently tied at 78 points) should be particularly focused on not just accumulating points but aiming for tournament wins to secure the tiebreaker advantage.

LAST CHANCE TOURNAMENT

After the conclusion of the 20-week regular season, a special “Last Chance Tournament” will be held for players who did not secure a major/minor seat. This tournament will:

  • Pay out remaining league funds as determined by the committee
  • Include that week’s buy-in added to the prize pool
  • Award additional WSOP seats (to be determined based on available funds)

This provides one final opportunity for players who miss out on the top 6 to still secure WSOP representation.

Week 18 begins this Thursday at Win Derby, where we’ll see if the bubble tightens further or if the current top 6 can create some breathing room between themselves and their challengers.

Report by Elite Tampa Bay Poker League April 26, 2025

The final table in order of finish was:

Mitch Smith Juan Rodriguez 

2.Chop

3.Allen Wiseman/Steve Trizis

4.Dave Bennett 

5.Mark Winchell 

6.Mo Lahlou

7.Ray Mancini 

8.Jackie Torro Rivers 

9.Evan VanCavage 

Discover more from TampaBayPoker.Com

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading