The Great Squeeze: Week 17 Locks Seven Seats and Sets Up a Wild Finale
This was the week that separated dreamers from ticket holders. With $10,000 WSOP Main Event seats hanging in the balance, Week 17 delivered exactly the kind of high-stakes drama this league was built for. When the chips settled, seven players had mathematically locked up their summer plans in Las Vegas — and ten more learned they have exactly one week left to fight for the final two spots. The margins are razor-thin, the scenarios are wild, and Week 18 is shaping up to be the most consequential night in league history.
We’ve reached the pivotol week in the week – week 17 of our 18 week season. This week determined who still has a chance to represent the League in either the WPT Championship in December or the WSOP Main Event this summer. By the end of the night 8 seats were a lock and there were enough funds to have almost 9 members have a seat. Based on the YTD funds we will be close enough that the 9th place finisher will be given the option to have a seat if they make up the difference with a prorated amount being shared with the league from any proceeds won from the seat. There will be no losers lounge since the goal of the league is to send as many players to play the chosen $10K event for the league.
Clive <John Capitano
Clive Gavin 9th
John Capitano’s 99<Ryan Harfouch’s AA
John Capitano 8th
Huge hand for Allen Wiseman>Dan Johnson
Dan, on fumes, survived!
But then he was out-
Dan Johnson<Ryan Harfouch
Dan Johnson 7th
Ryan Harfouch TT>Chrissy KK
Chrissy Holubeck 6th
Lee Tran < Allen Wiseman’s QQ
Lee Tran 5th
A much needed double for Rob Fulton!
And for Allen a double through Ryan!
Andra Zachow’s K8<Ryan Harfouch’s KT
Andra Zachow 4th
Double for Ryan Harfouch leaving Rob Fulton on fumes….
Allen Wiseman>Rob Fulton
Rob Fulton 3rd
Allen Wiseman>Ryan Harfouch
Ryan Harfouch 2nd
Allen Wiseman was our week 17 winner which locks up a WSOP Main Event seat for team Allen Wiseman/Steve Trizis. Rumour has it that Allen will represent their team this summer.
Team Allen/Steve have moved into 2nd place on the season leaderboard behind Ray Mancini with this win! With his second place finish this week Ryan Harfouch is one point behind Allen/Steve on the leaderboard. The overall leaderboard winner will receive a pretty nice trophy celebrating their win. The top 3 could end up tieing for 1st on the leaderboard.
Week 18 WSOP Main Event Seat Qualification Odds
QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENTS:
- 15 of 18 weeks attendance
- 4 of last 5 weeks attendance (Weeks 14-18)
- Top 9 point earners who meet both requirements represent the League with a $10K WSOP Main Event seats or $10K WPT World Championship seat
WEEK 18 SCORING: 1st=14, 2nd=12, 3rd=10, 4th=8, 5th=6, 6th=4, 7th=3, 8th=2, 9th=1
LOCKED SEATS (1-7)
Seven players have mathematically clinched their seats — they cannot be caught even if someone else wins Week 18:
1. Ray Mancini — 102 points, 4 W/C, +50 point lead ✓ CLINCHED (must attend W18 for 4-of-5 requirement)
2. Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman — 89 points, 2 W/C, +37 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
3. Ryan Harfouch — 88 points, 0 W/C, +36 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
4. James McKinnon — 77 points, 3 W/C, +25 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
5. Robert Fulton — 75 points, 2 W/C, +23 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
6. David Smith — 74 points, 2 W/C, +22 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
7. Lee Tran/Hugh Mayes — 67 points, 0 W/C, +15 point lead ✓ CLINCHED
THE BATTLE FOR 2 REMAINING SEATS
Three-way tie at 52 points creates high drama for positions 8-10:
Dan Goonin — 52 points, 2 W/C, 14 weeks played, 3-of-4 last weeks ⚠️ MUST PLAY WEEK 18 or he’s disqualified! Only has 14 weeks attendance and needs Week 18 to hit both the 15-week requirement and the 4-of-5 last weeks requirement. Strong tiebreaker position if he shows up. ODDS: 55-65%
Nick/Bob Scholz — 52 points, 2 W/C, 17 weeks played, 4-of-4 last weeks Safe on all attendance requirements. Tied with Goonin on tiebreaker. In great position heading into the finale. ODDS: 55-65%
Jack Feeney — 52 points, 0 W/C, 17 weeks played, 4-of-4 last weeks Safe on attendance but loses any tiebreaker — he has zero wins/chops while Goonin and Scholz each have 2. If all three stay at 52 points, Feeney is eliminated. ODDS: 45-55%
PLAYERS IN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson — 50 points, 1 W/C, 2 points back Needs a Top 9 finish (2+ points) to apply pressure. A win would vault them to 64 points and claim a seat outright. ODDS: 35-45%
12. Andra Zachow — 46 points, 0 W/C, 6 points back Needs a Top 6 finish (6+ points) to reach 52 and force tiebreakers, or a Top 4 finish to pass the bubble outright. ODDS: 20-30%
12. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan — 46 points, 1 W/C, 6 points back Same math as Zachow but has 1 win/chop for tiebreaker advantage. Needs Top 6 to have a chance. ODDS: 22-32%
12. Ondrei Ronhaar/Austin Fowler — 46 points, 0 W/C, 6 points back Needs Top 6 finish to reach 52 points and get into tiebreaker territory. ODDS: 20-30%
15. Josh Nicholson/John Capitano — 45 points, 0 W/C, 7 points back Needs a Top 5 finish (8+ points) to have any realistic shot at a seat. ODDS: 15-25%
16. Dugg Hadden — 44 points, 0 W/C, 8 points back Needs a Top 4 finish (10+ points) to get to 54 and hope for help from others. ODDS: 12-20%
17. Dimitry Shamootin — 39 points, 0 W/C, 13 points back Needs to WIN Week 18 (14 points) AND have multiple players ahead stumble. A true longshot. ODDS: 3-8%
MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED
These players cannot catch 52 points even with a win (max 14 points available):
Ryan Johnson — 37 points, 15 back (max possible: 51) — ELIMINATED
Marv Karlins/Chrissy Holubeck — 36 points, 16 back (max possible: 50) — ELIMINATED
Mohamed Lahlou — 36 points, 16 back (max possible: 50) — ELIMINATED
Stuart Phillips/Kumar Sudhir — 36 points, 16 back (max possible: 50) — ELIMINATED
Justin Green — 32 points, 20 back — ELIMINATED
Oran Haynes — 32 points, 20 back — ELIMINATED
All others below 38 points — ELIMINATED
KEY SCENARIOS TO WATCH
SCENARIO A: Status quo — Dan Goonin plays, all three at 52 stay level Result: Goonin (2 W/C) and Scholz (2 W/C) claim seats 8-9. Feeney is OUT on tiebreaker.
SCENARIO B: Goonin no-shows Week 18 Result: Goonin is DISQUALIFIED for failing attendance requirements. Feeney and Scholz claim seats 8-9.
SCENARIO C: Tom McDonald wins Week 18 Result: Tom jumps to 64 points, leapfrogs the entire 52-point trio, and claims a seat. Only 1 spot remains for Goonin/Feeney/Scholz.
SCENARIO D: A 46-point player wins Week 18 Result: That player (Zachow, Rodriguez/Thivyanathan, or Ronhaar/Fowler) jumps to 60 points, passes everyone at 52, and claims a seat outright. Just 1 spot left for the bubble trio.
SCENARIO E: Multiple players from 44-46 group finish Top 4-5 Result: Could create multi-way tie scenarios at 54-56 points. Tiebreakers become critical and chaos ensues.
WEEK 17 FINAL TABLE RESULTS
1st — Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (14 pts) 🔥 Won 3 of last 4 weeks
2nd — Ryan Harfouch (13 pts) 🔥 Hot streak continues
3rd — Robert Fulton (12 pts) 🔥 Back-to-back final tables
4th — Andra Zachow (8 pts) 📈 Building momentum at the right time
5th — Lee Tran/Hugh Mayes (6 pts) Solid performance
6th — Marv Karlins/Chrissy Holubeck (4 pts)
7th — Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson (3 pts) Timing is right for a big Week 18
8th — Josh Nicholson/John Capitano (2 pts)
9th — Clive Gavin/Bobby Cornette (1 pt)
Notable: The three players tied at 52 (Goonin, Feeney, Scholz) all missed the Week 17 final table. Meanwhile, several players chasing them found points.
WHAT TO WATCH IN WEEK 18
1. Does Dan Goonin show up? His entire season hinges on attendance. If he misses, he’s disqualified and Jack Feeney goes from tiebreaker loser to likely seat holder.
2. Can Tom McDonald make a final table? At just 2 points back with 1 win/chop for tiebreaker help, even a min-cash puts serious pressure on the 52-point trio.
3. Will the 46-point cluster make a move? Four players need Top 6 finishes to have a chance. One win from this group changes everything.
4. Tiebreaker scenarios With so many players clustered between 44-52 points, wins and chops could be the deciding factor for multiple seats.
FINAL ODDS SUMMARY
100% — CLINCHED: Ray Mancini (102), Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (89), Ryan Harfouch (88), James McKinnon (77), Robert Fulton (75), David Smith (74), Lee Tran/Hugh Mayes (67)
55-65%: Dan Goonin (52) — must play W18; Nick/Bob Scholz (52)
45-55%: Jack Feeney (52) — weak tiebreaker
35-45%: Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson (50)
20-32%: Andra Zachow (46), Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan (46), Ondrei Ronhaar/Austin Fowler (46)
15-25%: Josh Nicholson/John Capitano (45)
12-20%: Dugg Hadden (44)
3-8%: Dimitry Shamootin (39)
0%: Everyone at 37 points or below
THE FINAL WEEK. TWO SEATS. EVERYTHING ON THE LINE.
Two seats. Ten players. One night. The math is brutal, the stakes are life-changing, and the drama is absolutely guaranteed. Will Dan Goonin show up and hold off the field? Can someone from the 46-point cluster pull off a win and steal a seat? Who takes home the season leaderboard trophy? All of it gets answered Week 18. Don’t just watch from the sidelines — be there. We need full tables to lock in that 9th seat, celebrate the December birthdays (happy early birthday, Chrissy!), and witness the most pressure-packed night of the season. This is Elite Tampa Bay Poker at its finest. See you there.
