With five weeks remaining and eight guaranteed $10K WSOP Main Event seats on the line, Lee Tran made the statement of the season. His Week 13 victory—capped by cracking Ray Mancini’s pocket threes with pocket queens in a dramatic heads-up finish—vaults Team Lee Tran/Hugh Mayes to 57 points and sole possession of third place. Ray Mancini (86 points) remains the undisputed leader, extending his advantage after another dominant performance that saw him eliminate Jack Feeney, Ian Feller (subbing for Don Linsky), Don Manns (playing for Juan/Aaron), and Rob Fulton before falling just short of back-to-back wins. Ryan Harfouch (66 points) holds second place but went cold this week with zero points, while David Smith (56 points) and Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (55 points) round out a tightly-packed top five. Allen Wiseman—who may have been Steve in an Allen costume at the feature table—dispatched Andrew Jozak (subbing for James McKinnon) with AQ over AJ before finishing third. The excitement peaked with a four-way all-in won by Don Manns playing for Team Juan/Aaron with AK suited, and Don Linsky’s sub Ian Feller’s cold four-bet with KK against Justin Green’s AK jam. With $72,800 in the prize pool and the race intensifying, the final five weeks will determine who’s heading to Las Vegas.

At the feature table Allen was playing for team Allen/Steve but it may have been Steve wearing an Allen costume?

At the outer table Don cold 4b KK Justin 5B Jam AK

Down to two tables we had a 4 way all in! Don Manns, playing for team Aaron/Juan, was victorious with AKcc!

Allen Wiseman’s AQ>Andrew’s AJ

Andrew Jozak (for James Mckinnon) 9th

Ray Mancini KQss>Jack Feeney 88

Jack Feeney 8th

Ray Mancini>Ian Feller playing for (Don Linsky)

Ian Feller 7th

Rob Fukton’s JJ>Andra A3o

Andra Zachow 6th

A huge double for Ray through Don Manns

Ray Mancini QQ> KT Don Manns

Don Manns (for Aaron Thivyanathan) 5th

Ray M AT>AK Rob

Rob Fulton 4th

Ray M QT>KK Allen

Allen Wiseman 3rd

Lee T QQ>33 Ray M

Ray Mancini 2nd

Our week 13 final table in order of finish was:

Lee Tran 

2.Ray Mancini 

3.Allen Wiseman 

4.Rob Fulton 

5.Don Manns (Juan Aaron)

6.Andra Zachow

7.Ian Feller (Don Linsky)

8.Jack Feeney 

9.Andrew Jozak (James McKinnon)

Lee Tran’s victory—his second of the season—couldn’t have come at a better time, adding 14 crucial points and establishing him as a legitimate contender for a top-three finish. Ray Mancini’s runner-up performance (12 points) demonstrates why he’s so far ahead: even on weeks he doesn’t win, he’s cashing deep and accumulating points. His 86-point total gives him a commanding 20-point cushion over Ryan Harfouch (66), who needs to shake off this zero-point week quickly. The battle for third through eighth is where things get fascinating. Lee Tran (57), David Smith (56), and Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (55) are separated by just two points, while James McKinnon (52), Robert Fulton (48), and Jack Feeney (44) remain within striking distance of the guaranteed seats. Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson (39) and Dugg Hadden (37) certainly aren’t out of it yet—with 14 points available each week and five weeks remaining, that’s 70 potential points up for grabs. A player currently sitting at 30-35 points could realistically finish with 80+ points with a hot streak. The math is simple: string together two wins and a few cashes, and you’re in the conversation. With attendance staying strong (38 entries this week, 36 last week) and the competition fierce, no one can afford to miss a week or coast. The final five weeks promise drama, heartbreak, and triumph as this incredibly deep field battles for eight life-changing seats to the WSOP Main Event.

DETAILED ANALYSIS FOR THE FINAL 5 WEEKS:

Current State of the Race:

Locks (99%+ probability):

1. Ray Mancini (86 pts) – Barring a complete collapse, Ray has locked his seat. Even if he scores zero points in the final 5 weeks, players would need to average 17.2 points per week to catch him—nearly impossible.
2. Ryan Harfouch (66 pts) – Ryan’s lead is substantial. He’d need to completely disappear AND have multiple players go on historic runs to miss out.

Very Strong Position (85-95% probability):

3. Lee Tran/Hugh Mayes (57 pts) – Fresh off a win, sitting comfortably in third. Would take a bad streak combined with multiple players heating up.

4. David Smith (56 pts) – Consistent all season with three final tables. His steady play makes him a heavy favorite.
5. Team Steve Trizis/Allen Wiseman (55 pts) – Two wins this season (Weeks 12 & 4). Proven winners with momentum.

Strong Contenders (60-80% probability): 6. James McKinnon (52 pts) – Two wins early season, and 7 points in last 4 weeks. Needs to rediscover form.

7. Robert Fulton (48 pts) – Back-to-back cashes (Weeks 12-13) show he’s heating up at the right time.

Fighting for the Last Seat (40-60% probability):

8. Jack Feeney (44 pts) – Consistent cashing but no recent wins. In danger zone if hot players emerge.

Will there be a 9th seat?? Maybe!

Dark Horses (20-40% probability):

• Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson (39 pts) – 6 points behind 8th place. One win + decent finishes = right back in it.
• Dugg Hadden (37 pts) – Runner-up Week 12. One win away from the conversation.
• Dimitry Shamootin (35 pts) – Week 6 winner, but quiet since.
• Andra Zachow (34 pts) – Multiple deep runs, including Week 13’s 6th place.
• Marv Karlins/Chrissy Holubeck (35 pts), Nick/Bob Scholz (35 pts) – Both have strong finishes but need consistency.

Long Shots Still Alive (5-15% probability):

• Ryan Johnson (33 pts) – Week 8 winner. If he gets hot again…
• Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan (32 pts) – Week 9 chop winners with Don Manns subbing this week for 6 points.
• Justin Green (28 pts) – Two early final tables, needs magic.
• Other players from 15-27 Points are all mathematically still in it – a couple wins+ or a few top finishes and consistant high points weeks along with some cold spells for those above them in the standings and they are in it! There’s a possibility of 9 seats and extra funds will go to the last chance tournament with minor event seats so attendance is key! Remember you must play or have a sub 4 of the last 5 weeks to qualify!!

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WHAT-IF SCENARIOS:

Scenario 1: The Chaos Theory If team Tom McDonald/Dan Johnson wins Weeks 14 & 15 and gets 3rd in Week 16:

• Week 14: 14 pts
• Week 15: 14 pts
• Week 16: 10 pts
• Total added: 38 pts
• New total: 77 pts

This would put them ahead of Jack Feeney (44) and potentially Robert Fulton (48) and James McKinnon (52) and others if those players go cold. Team Tom/Dan is NOT out of it.

Scenario 2: The Dugg Hadden Surge Current: 37 points, needs ~43 more to feel safe (targeting 80)

• Win Week 14: +14 (51 total)
• 2nd Week 15: +12 (63 total)
• 4th Week 16: +8 (71 total)
• 3rd Week 17: +10 (81 total)
• Miss Week 18: 0 (81 total)

With this run, Dugg leapfrogs into the top 8. One hot month changes everything.

Scenario 3: The Andra Zachow Cinderella Story Current: 34 points, needs 46 to reach 80

• Three wins in final 5 weeks: +42 points (76 total)
• One 4th place: +8 points (84 total)

While winning 3 of 5 is unlikely, Andra has shown she can run deep. She’s proven she belongs at final tables. If the cards cooperate, she’s going to Vegas.

Scenario 4: The Current 8th Place Holder Collapses Jack Feeney at 44 points. If he misses the next 3 weeks or goes cold:

• Weeks 14-16: 0 points (stays at 44)

Meanwhile, ANY player in the 30-39 point range who gets:

• 2 wins + 1 runner-up = 40 points
• Would finish with 70-79 points

Any player with 15-29 points could finish with 79+points with combinations of wins/FT points – some need more wins or chops than others.

This means all players can still mathematically catch 8th place.

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THE MAGIC NUMBERS:

Based on historical data from this season:

• 80+ points: Virtual lock for top 8
• 70-79 points: Very strong chance, depends on field performance
• 60-69 points: Bubble territory, need others to stumble
• 50-59 points: Must have strong finish to feel safe
• 40-49 points: Need exceptional final 5 weeks
• 25-39 points: Need near-perfect run (multiple wins)
• Under 25 points: Would require unprecedented hot streak

Average points per final table this season: 7.3 points Maximum points available in 5 weeks: 70 points (14 × 5)

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ATTENDANCE MATTERS: With 36-38 entries the last few weeks, point values remain high. The more players, the more valuable each finish becomes. If attendance stays strong, even 9th place is worth a point—and those points add up.

BOTTOM LINE FOR THE BOTTOM DWELLERS:

If you’re sitting at 25-35 points, here’s your path:

1. Don’t miss a week – Every session is crucial
2. Target 2 wins – Gets you 28 points right there
3. Cash 2-3 more times – Another 15-25 points
4. Total haul needed: 40-45 points over 5 weeks

This gets you to 70-75 points total, which should secure a seat if the top stays consistent.

The dream is alive. The race is wide open from 3rd to 15th place. Five weeks. Eight+ seats. Seventy points available. Let’s run it up.