Nobody is Saif yet: Week 16 recap
The prize pool for the Elite Tampa Bay Poker League Winter/Spring 2026 season just hit $75,800 and the league is on a path to send nine players to the WSOP Main Event this summer. The math is straightforward: averaging 35.5 entries per week over the final four weeks gets the field to a ninth seat, and the league has averaged 38.2 entries over the last five weeks with $100 per entry going straight into the prize pool. The momentum is there. Nine seats, four weeks left, and a Last Chance Tournament at the end that gives everyone a final shot regardless of where they stand.
This week we had Jakob Parks playing for John Coleman, Dan Johnson for Clive Gavin, and new sub Jerry Argento for Craig Rice. Remember – on top of playing 17 of 20 weeks, members must play 4 of the last 5 weeks to qualify. Subs are allowed up to 6 times a season so it’s super important to be here or have a sub.
Following are the hands that made the night!
With a week 16 chop for first Saif Keshwani moves back into first place after a temporary hiatis! Ryan Harfouch jumped from 11th place to 6th – cracking the Main Event seat bubble!
The final table in order of finish was:
Chop 1st – Saif Keshwani & Ryan Harfouch
2. Chop
3. Craig Rice (by sub Jerry Argento)
4. Even Pantano
5. Kevin James
6. Jay Capitano
7. Mike Robinson
8. James McKinnon
9. Clive Gavin (by Dan Johnson)
Week 16 delivered one of the bigger nights of the season. Saif Keshwani and Ryan Harfouch chopped the top spot, splitting 13 points each and both vaulting up the standings in a big way. Saif sits at the top of the leaderboard at 84 points, with Evan Pantano right behind at 82 and Josh Nicholson and Jay Capitano at 77. Ryan Harfouch’s chop win was the result of the night for him – he went from outside looking in to sitting comfortably in 6th at 65 points. Craig Rice took 3rd and has real momentum building at the right time in the season. The bubble picture is tight: Evan Vancavage and Jason Barnett and Steve Trizis are tied at 60, and James McKinnon is just one point behind them at 54 after his 8th-place finish.
Here is what makes this race genuinely wide open heading into the final four weeks. With 60 points still available – 56 from final table finishes and 4 attendance points – not a single player in the top 8 has mathematically clinched a seat. The best chaser outside the top 8 is Billy McPhillips and Jordan Joekel at 58 points, who can theoretically reach 118 with a perfect run. That ceiling exceeds every player currently in the seat zone, including the leader. It would take an almost impossible sequence of events – every chaser running hot while every top player runs cold – but the math does not close until the field thins further. What it means in practice is that the players sitting on the bubble at 60 points are in real danger every single week, and the players in 9th through 12th are one big Thursday away from crashing the party. Four weeks, 56 final table points on the board, and nobody has earned anything yet. See you at the felt!
| # | Player | Pts | Progress | Wks | Wk 16 | vs 8th | Pts Left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1🥇 | Saif Keshwani | 84 | 16 | Chop | +24 | 56 | |
| 2🥈 | Evan Pantano | 82 | 16 | 4th | +22 | 56 | |
| 3🥉 | Josh Nicholson / Jay Capitano | 77 | 16 | 6th | +17 | 56 | |
| 4 | Juan Rodriguez | 75 | 16 | — | +15 | 56 | |
| 5 | Karl Manouchakian | 67 | 14 | — | +7 | 56 | |
| 6 | Ryan Harfouch | 65 | 16 | Chop | +5 | 56 | |
| 7 | Evan Vancavage | 60 | 16 | — | +0 | 56 | |
| 7 | Jason Barnett / Steve Trizis | 60 | 16 | — | — | 56 | |
| 9 | Billy McPhillips / Jordan Joekel | 58 | 16 | — | −2 | 56 | |
| 10 | Chrissy Holubeck | 57 | 16 | — | −3 | 56 | |
| 11 | Maribeth Hilliard | 55 | 16 | — | −5 | 56 | |
| 12 | James McKinnon | 54 | 16 | 8th | −6 | 56 | |
| 13 | Ray Mancini | 49 | 16 | — | −11 | 56 | |
| 14 | Craig Rice | 47 | 15 | 3rd | −13 | 56 | |
| 15 | Andra Zachow | 46 | 16 | — | −14 | 56 | |
| 16 | Mike Robinson | 40 | 16 | 7th | −20 | 56 | |
| 16 | Ondrei Ronhaar | 40 | 16 | — | −20 | 56 | |
| 16 | Rob Fulton | 40 | 16 | — | −20 | 56 | |
| 19 | Kevin James | 39 | 15 | 5th | −21 | 56 | |
| 19 | Shawn O’Brien / Rob Slagle | 39 | 15 | — | −21 | 56 | |
| 21 | Don Manns | 38 | 15 | — | −22 | 56 | |
| 22 | Tammy Leonard | 33 | 16 | — | −27 | 56 | |
| 23 | Mark Winchell | 32 | 16 | — | −28 | 56 | |
| 24 | Hugh Mayes / Lee Tran | 29 | 16 | — | −31 | 56 | |
| 24 | Clive Gavin / Jacob Mast | 29 | 16 | 9th | −31 | 56 | |
| 26 | John Coleman | 26 | 14 | — | −34 | 56 | |
| 27 | Rayko Garcia / David Chirino | 24 | 14 | — | −36 | 56 | |
| 27 | Daniel Cuesta | 24 | 13 | — | −36 | 56 | |
| 29 | Mike Ozer | 17 | 13 | — | −43 | 56 | |
| DQ | Brian Fuchs DQ | 17 | 7 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Jack Bittker DQ | 11 | 3 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Jake Naumann DQ | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Mitch Smith DQ | 8 | 8 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Jack Feeney DQ | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Dugg Hadden DQ | 6 | 6 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Tom McDonald / Jim Meyer DQ | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | John Gordon DQ | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Keith Loftus DQ | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Bob Scholz / Nick Scholz DQ | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Ryan Johnson DQ | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | |
| DQ | Stephen Herbert DQ | 2 | 2 | — | — | — |
WEEK 16 SEASON ANALYSIS
ETBPL Winter/Spring 2026 – Season Analysis: Week 16 of 20
The Lead Pack (Top 6 – but nothing is locked up yet)
Saif Keshwani sits at the top at 84 points after his chop win, with Evan Pantano right behind at 82. These two have been at or near the top of the board all season and now have the biggest cushions heading into the final four weeks. Josh Nicholson and Jay Capitano are 3rd at 77 and have been one of the steadiest entries all season.
Juan Rodriguez is 4th at 75 with 16 weeks played – well-positioned and consistent throughout the season. Karl Manouchakian is 5th at 67 but has only played 14 weeks and cannot miss a single remaining week. Ryan Harfouch’s chop win completely changed his outlook – he jumped to 6th at 65 and now has real breathing room after being on the wrong side of the bubble conversation just a week ago.
Despite those cushions, nobody at the top has clinched anything. With 60 points still available to any player who runs perfectly over the final four weeks, the best chasers outside the top 8 can theoretically reach totals that exceed every current seat holder. The math does not close for the leaders until the field thins after Week 17 or 18. Show up, keep cashing, and nothing is earned until it is earned.
The Bubble (8th Place – Tie: Evan Vancavage and Jason Barnett/Steve Trizis, 60 pts)
Both Evan Vancavage and Jason Barnett and Steve Trizis are sitting at 60 after 16 weeks. Neither made the final table this week, and now they’re watching four players close in behind them.
James McKinnon is six points back at 54 after his 8th-place cash. Billy McPhillips and Jordan Joekel are 2 back at 58. Chrissy Holubeck is 3 back at 57. Maribeth Hilliard is 5 back at 55. Four players within 6 points, four weeks left, 56 final table points on the table. Anyone holding a seat right now has earned the right to be nervous – and the math backs that up. Billy McPhillips and Jordan Joekel alone can reach 118 points with a perfect run, which would push multiple current seat holders out entirely if the rest of the field follows suit.
Hot Pursuit (Positions 9-12)
Billy McPhillips and Jordan Joekel at 58 are the closest threat – one strong finish puts them inside the bubble. Chrissy Holubeck at 57 has been rock solid all season. Maribeth Hilliard at 55 has quietly stayed in contention all year. James McKinnon at 54 made the final table this week and is clearly hitting his stride at the right time.
Any of these four could be sitting in the seat zone by next Thursday.
Still Very Much in the Hunt (Positions 13-17)
Ray Mancini at 49 and Craig Rice at 47 are both in double-digit deficit but Craig’s 3rd-place finish this week was a statement – form at exactly the right time. Andra Zachow is at 46, running ahead of last season’s pace at this same point, and 14 back from the bubble with 56 final table points still available. Mike Robinson made his move with a 7th-place finish and sits at 40. Kevin James cashed 5th and is at 39. All of them need deep runs and some help, but the Last Chance Tournament at season’s end means nobody is out until it’s over.
Long Shots Who Still Have a Path (Positions 18-29)
From Ondrei Ronhaar and Rob Fulton at 40 on down, the math requires a string of deep runs and chaos above. It is steep. But stay qualified, keep showing up, and let the Last Chance Tournament do its job – it exists for exactly this situation.
The Attendance Watch
Karl Manouchakian is the most critical name. He has played 14 weeks through Week 16 and needs to play all 4 remaining weeks to stay qualified. He is 5th in the standings and a seat is absolutely within reach – but he has to be at the table every Thursday.
John Coleman sat out Week 16 but had a sub for his attendance point and is at 14 weeks played. He needs to play at least 3 of the final 4 to qualify.
Daniel Cuesta and Mike Ozer are both at 13 weeks and need all 4 remaining weeks with no margin for error.
Everyone else has played 15 or 16 weeks and has room to breathe. But the home stretch is here and every Thursday counts.
