The Elite Tampa Bay Poker League has entered its final act, and Week 15 delivered both coronation and chaos. Ray Mancini’s first-place chop with James McKinnon pushed him past the century mark to a commanding 101 points—all but guaranteeing his WSOP Main Event seat barring catastrophic absence. But the real story is McKinnon’s meteoric rise to 75 points and second place, leapfrogging both David Smith (71) and Ryan Harfouch (68) in a single tournament. With just three weeks remaining and at least eight $10,000 seats on the line from a $79,700 prize pool, the math is becoming ruthless: every player from 9th place on down is just one tournament win away from cracking the top eight, while those currently in the money must play flawless poker to hold their ground. The attendance requirement looms like a guillotine—miss two of the final five weeks without a substitute, and you’re disqualified regardless of your point total.
Jack Bittker was out 9th place finisher this week after Sam Browning’s had was best.
Oran Haynes was 8th after Ondrei’s 88 was best!
Mohamed Lahlou finished 7th, again vs Sam Browning
James McKinnon stole Tom McDonald’s playbook and his A6 bested Tom’s partner Dan Johnson’s A3! Dan Johnson was 6th (ignore what the picture says).
Sam Browning’s luck ran out when his high card could not beat John Capitano’s.
Sam Browning was 5th – a nice boost for him in the standings!
Ondrei Ronhaar scored a much needed 4th place – close enough to a podium to keep his dreams alive!!
John Capitano’s 3rd place finish puts team Capitano/Richardson in 12th place – just 9 points behind our season leaderboard 8th! One win and they are in top 8!!!
Our winners this week Ray Mancini and James McKinnon chopped first place – Ray is solidly in 1st on the leaderboard and James moved into 2nd! This win locks up a seat for Ray and it will take a lot for James to not get a seat, this is getting crazy!!!
The final table in order of finish was:
Current Leaderboard
HUGE GAME NEXT WEEK!!!! Remember – to qualify for your seat (if you get enough points) and share in any winner’s proceeds in the Main Event players must play or have a sub 4 of the last 5 weeks in addition to playing or having a sub 15 of 18 weeks.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: WHO’S IN, WHO’S OUT, AND WHAT IT TAKES
VIRTUALLY LOCKED (>95% chance with normal play):
1. Ray Mancini – 101 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: LOCKED IN with 26-point lead
- Path: Just needs to play 2 of final 3 weeks
- Odds: 99.9%
2. James McKinnon – 75 points (14 weeks played)
- Status: Nearly Locked
- Critical: MUST play 2 of final 3 weeks to hit both 15 total weeks AND 4 of last 5
- Lead over 9th: 29 points
- Odds: 95% – Needs catastrophic collapse to miss out
3. David Smith – 71 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: Highly Secure
- Lead over 9th: 25 points
- Odds: 92% – Can coast barring disaster
STRONG POSITION (70-90% chance):
4. Ryan Harfouch – 68 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: Strong but Vulnerable
- Lead over 9th: 22 points
- Odds: 85% – Safe unless multiple players get hot
5. Steve Trizis – 63 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: In the Money but Nervous
- Lead over 9th: 17 points (just over 1 tournament win)
- Odds: 75% – Needs to maintain pace or add points
6. Lee Tran – 59 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: Bubble Watch Begins
- Lead over 9th: 13 points (barely one win)
- Odds: 65% – One bad week could be fatal
FIGHTING FOR THEIR LIVES (40-65% chance):
T7. Nick Scholz – 50 points (15 weeks played) T7. Robert Fulton – 50 points (15 weeks played)
- Status: Seat Holders by Thread
- Lead over 9th: Just 4 points
- Odds: 50% each – Coin flip territory; ANY final table by those below threatens them
ONE WIN AWAY (20-40% chance):
9. Jack Feeney – 46 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 4 points
- needs ONE decent finish
- Odds: 40% – One top-3 finish puts him in
10. Tom McDonald – 45 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 5 points
- needs top-3 finish
- Odds: 35% – Very alive with strong play
11. Juan Rodriguez/Aaron Thivyanathan – 44 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 6 points
- needs top-2 finish
- Odds: 30% – One win changes everything
T12. Josh Nicholson/John Capitano – 41 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 9 points
- needs WIN to have shot
- Odds: 25% – Week 15’s 3rd place (10 pts) shows they’re dangerous
LONGSHOTS STILL BREATHING (5-20% chance):
13. Dugg Hadden – 39 points (14 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 11 points
- Critical: MUST play 2 of 3 final weeks for attendance
- Odds: 15% – Needs win + others to stumble
T14. Dan Goonin – 37 points (12 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 13 points
- DANGER: Only 12 weeks, needs ALL 3 remaining weeks
- Odds: 10% – Must play out AND win at least once
T14. Dimitry Shamootin – 37 points (15 weeks played) T14. Jack Bittker – 37 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 13 points
- Odds: 12% each – Need multiple big finishes
17. Andra Zachow – 36 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 14 points
- Odds: 10% – Needs back-to-back huge weeks
T17. Ondrei Ronhaar – 36 points (15 weeks played)
- Gap to 8th: 14 points
- Week 15’s 4th place (8 pts) was huge
- Odds: 12% – Showed life this week
MATHEMATICAL MIRACLES NEEDED (6-8% chance):
19. Ryan Johnson – 35 points (15 weeks) – Odds: 8% 20. Mohamed Lahlou – 34 points (14 weeks) – Odds: 7% (must play 2 of 3) T20. Stuart Phillips – 34 points (15 weeks) – Odds: 6%
22-27. Everyone from 30 points down – Odds: 5%- (would need to win 2 of final 3 AND have top 8 collapse) EVERYONE STILL HAS A CHANCE!
ELIMINATED (Attendance):
- Anyone below 12 weeks who can’t reach 15 weeks
Closing Paragraph:
As we enter the final three-week gauntlet, the stakes have never been higher and the margin for error has never been smaller. Ray Mancini can already taste Las Vegas, but for everyone else from James McKinnon in second to Josh Nicholson in 12th, the difference between a WSOP Main Event seat and going home empty-handed could come down to a single river card. The attendance rule remains the ultimate equalizer: you must play or have a substitute for at least 4 of the final 5 weeks, and you must reach 15 total weeks to qualify—no exceptions, no matter how many points you have. Nick Scholz and Robert Fulton are clinging to 8th place by just 4 points, while Jack Feeney, Tom McDonald, and Aaron Thivyanathan are circling like sharks, each one tournament away from stealing a seat. With $79,700 in the prize pool and dreams of the World Series on the line, the final three weeks will separate the champions from the contenders. Show up, play smart, and leave nothing on the felt—because in three weeks, eight players will be Vegas-bound and everyone else will be wondering “what if?”